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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his government led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.