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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though analysts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.