How Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is another twist in the president's attempts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.