Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.
A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely.
That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.
Official Outrage and Private Thoughts
Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.
“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”
These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.
Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.
Allies in Decline
For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.
However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.
Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.
“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”
Focus on the Main Front
Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.
“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.
Tangible Costs and New Threats
Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.
This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.
Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.
A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.
“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”
A Dark Optimism
Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.
“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”